We’re 5 weeks into the NFL season and a lot has modified. Groups we thought had been absolute locks to problem for a Tremendous Bowl have been wracked by damage and dangerous efficiency, whereas others no person anticipated to be good have stepped up.
Right now we’re diving into the groups who’ve made statements to begin the season and we predict have an actual shot of creating all of it the best way to the Tremendous Bowl this 12 months. It’s a fairly wild checklist, so buckle up.
That is actually beginning to really feel just like the 12 months the Payments can put all of it collectively. Certain, you may level to their shocking loss to the Patriots on Monday Night time Soccer, however divisional video games can at all times be bizarre and unpredictable.
Once we get right down to brass tacks the Payments are the one group from the AFC elite who legitimately look pretty much as good as we thought they’d be through the season. The slight fear is that as we have a look at their schedule they’ve performed quite a lot of dangerous soccer groups which have enabled them to look good. The Ravens protection is a large number, and the much less we are saying in regards to the Saints, Jets, and Dolphins the higher.
That stated, the Payments have two enormous issues going for them: They haven’t been bitten considerably by the damage bug, and Josh Allen nonetheless exists. So long as Allen is wholesome this group will at all times have a shot to compete, and in contrast to previous years it’s wanting an increasing number of like they gained’t actually need to fret in regards to the Chiefs or Ravens this season in a major manner.
There is no such thing as a purpose the Chargers shouldn’t be capable of compete for a Tremendous Bowl — outdoors of the large caveat that their offensive line is having large time points with the damage to Rashawn Slater, and in some ways they’re nonetheless dealing with that.
Nonetheless, it’s powerful to jot down off this group. Jim Harbaugh has everybody shopping for into his model of soccer, Justin Herbert is enjoying ludicrously nicely, and the protection is holding up sufficient to maintain them in each recreation. It the Chargers can simply discover a manner of hitting one other gear on offense then they’ll be a playoff group to be extraordinarily nervous about within the AFC.
This could occur. It’s nearly how this group pivots within the subsequent few weeks.
The adage “protection wins championships” applies right here. Denver made a giant time assertion in beating Philadelphia, and that confirmed they’ve what it takes to be thought of among the many finest within the NFL this season.
What the Broncos lack in family names they make up by having gamers tailor made to suit Sean Payton’s system, and this group is getting the job completed. Bo Nix is way from an elite quarterback, however he’s such match for Payton that they’re making this work rather well. This group will hold successful as long as the Broncos protection guarantee the sport by no means reaches a degree the place Nix has to throw his manner again right into a recreation.
That’s exactly what’s occurring, with Denver rating 2nd within the NFL in fewest passing touchdowns allowed, 1st in speeding touchdowns allowed, and solely permitting 16.8 factors per recreation. It’s all coming collectively, and this group may be very harmful.
We’ve completed this dance earlier than. Counting the Chiefs out at any level is simply silly, as a result of this group at all times finds a manner via all of it. Certain, they won’t look spectacular proper now at 2-3, however there’s quite a lot of season to go.
There are apparent points right here the group must button up. No one has stepped as much as change into a dependable weapon for Patrick Mahomes, however he’s additionally forcing the ball greater than he usually does, desperately attempting to make performs occur the place they don’t exist. There’s additionally main questions in regards to the self-discipline, with the Chiefs basically beating themselves with dumb penalties and miscues in opposition to the Jaguars in Week 5.
When the mud settles the Chiefs will discover a manner. It’s simply what they do.
Is it time to begin believing within the Jaguars?
Jacksonville started the 12 months 2-1, with wins over the Carolina Panthers and the Houston Texans and a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, in a recreation began by Joe Burrow and completed by Jake Browning.
Sure, the identical Cincinnati Bengals that simply traded for Joe Flacco.
That was not a powerful begin to the season, however wins the previous two weeks over the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have definitely modified the narrative. Particularly, a comeback win over a Chiefs group desperately trying to find their very own assertion win is worthy of reward.
Jacksonville appears to have purchased into Liam Coen, the protection is among the finest within the league in keeping with Anticipated Factors Added per Play, and if Monday’s win is any indication Trevor Lawrence is discovering methods to make use of his legs extra to assist this offense. In a wide-open AFC, the Jaguars have a shot at making a deep run.
Talking of time to imagine…
Every week Ben Baldwin, the thoughts behind RBSDM.com, produces a bunch of graphics utilizing NFL information. A kind of is the “Staff Tiers” graphic, which appears at each EPA/Play on offense and protection to type groups into tiers.
Main the best way after 5 weeks? Your Indianapolis Colts:
Sure, a part of this could be a operate of who the Colts have performed. In any case, three of their 4 wins have come in opposition to the Dolphins, the Raiders, and the Titans, three groups with a mixed 3-12 file.
However a win over the Broncos, a slim loss to the Rams, and these numbers, present that the Colts are for actual.
It’s the Eagles, do we actually must say way more right here? Whereas it’s definitely true that Philly doesn’t look almost as dominant as they did a 12 months in the past, notably on offense — the actual fact is that no person appears notably nice this season to the purpose the place we will name them a favourite definitively.
Manner an excessive amount of is being fabricated from Philly shedding to Denver, which was a shock — however the Broncos are only a very strong group. There actually hasn’t been a single “gimme” on this group’s schedule up to now, they usually’re nonetheless 4-1. The margins could also be smaller in 2025 than they had been a 12 months in the past, however this stays one of many premiere groups within the NFL and somebody who will be an element within the playoffs.
Getting into the season there have been quite a lot of questions on whether or not the Lions would nonetheless be elite. That occurs once you lose each coordinators to go teaching jobs and must do some retooling within the teaching workers. 5 weeks in these questions have evaporated, and Detroit is simply pretty much as good as ever.
It is a group that has so many strengths it’s tough to search out an efficient technique to problem them. The run recreation is there, Jared Goff nonetheless performs unimaginable soccer with out Ben Johnson as his OC, and on protection the Lions aren’t fairly top-tier, however definitely adequate to again up their highly effective offense.
It takes quite a lot of effort to get previous Detroit. Now they’ve discovered their footing the sport to circle will likely be their subsequent matchup with the Packers on November 27.
The Packers regarded like they could be the very best group in the complete NFL, then they performed right down to their opponents by shedding to the Browns and tying with the Cowboys in back-to-back weeks. It’s nonetheless secure to say that Inexperienced Bay continues to be very, superb — and hopefully the bye week allowed a little bit of a reset the place they will present their potential as soon as extra.
Jordan Love is a wonderful quarterback who must contribute a couple of extra explosive performs to really lock him in among the many NFL’s elite tier of quarterbacks. That stated, he’s exceptionally good at taking good care of the soccer — which is essential now this group appears centered closely on bullying groups on protection and retaining video games shut.
When you will have a quarterback like Love, a operating again like Josh Jacobs, and Micah Parsons within the go rush then you definately’re going to be within the combine. It’s that straightforward.
The 49ers are such a bizarre group, however credit score the place it’s due: As injured and beat up as they’ve been San Francisco hasn’t caved in any respect, and boast a 4-1 file in opposition to the chances.
Probably the greatest coached groups within the NFL, it makes you surprise how good the Niners might be when everyone seems to be again and wholesome? Brock Purdy performed some iffy soccer earlier than being harm, however he needs to be again to kind when he recovers from turf toe in a couple of extra weeks.
It’s been far too simple to jot down off the 49ers this season, however they refuse to be ignored and that degree of competitiveness is what each championship group wants.
Is that this the 12 months they break via? It very nicely could possibly be. The Bucs basically hold operating again the identical system on offense, however it’s going to work till somebody stops it. Tampa has large, bodily receivers that merely out-muscle gamers for the ball, and have each separation and catch radius abilities that mitigate Baker Mayfield’s typically questionable accuracy.
Defensively is the place the Bucs are struggling, as they permit quite a lot of factors and are actually mediocre in opposition to the go. The flipside is that Baker Mayfield simply has that edge required to step up and make performs when his group wants them, and by no means quits on the sport.
Whereas removed from being a favourite within the NFC, don’t rely out Tampa Bay.
Vikings followers studying this piece are prepared with a cautionary story.
Don’t belief Sam Darnold.
A 12 months in the past, the Vikings regarded like probably the greatest groups within the NFC, led by the veteran journeyman. However a debacle in Week 18 relegated Minnesota to one of many Wild Card spots (as a substitute of doubtless the No. 1 seed within the convention) and the Vikings misplaced to the Rams on the street the next week.
Now, Darnold is in Seattle and the Seahawks are 3-2, with their two losses approaching a mixed seven factors to San Francisco and Tampa Bay. Their offense is among the many league’s finest in EPA/Play, even with Darnold within the fold. There are some points to type out on the defensive facet of the ball if that is going to really be a Tremendous Bowl contender, however that’s what Mike Macdonald was delivered to Seattle to do.
The largest hurdle right here is the schedule. Seattle’s remaining opponents have a mixed successful proportion of .559, one of many hardest slates left within the league.
For now, the Commanders stay on this checklist.
Some would possibly discover it laborious to make heads or tails out of Washington. Are they the group that went on the street this previous weekend and cruised to a 27-10 win over the Chargers? Or the group that regarded somewhat pedestrian in losses to the Packers and Falcons, and whose solely different wins are over the Russell Wilson-led Giants and the Raiders?
However these searching for optimism will level to the return of Jayden Daniels in final week’s win, the approaching return of Terry McLaurin, and one of many league’s best offenses as a purpose to imagine:
Others will level at a tough schedule (Washington has two video games in opposition to the Eagles, two video games in opposition to the Cowboys, and video games in opposition to Seattle, Detroit, and Denver remaining) and declare that the wins are going to be more durable to come back by down the stretch.
But when the Commanders come out of this schedule on the opposite facet with a playoff berth, they’ll have confirmed their value.
The priority in Los Angeles heading into the season was the standing of Matthew Stafford’s again.
By means of 5 video games, that again appears simply positive.
The Rams are 3-2, and there could be some frustration in Los Angeles that the file is just not higher. An extra time loss to the 49ers, coupled with a loss to the Eagles the place the Rams allowed a pair of blocked subject objectives, are the 2 blemishes. However with Stafford enjoying in addition to he’s proper now (the veteran quarterback is fifth within the NFL with an Adjusted Internet Yards per Try of 8.22) and an environment friendly protection (Los Angeles is sixth within the NFL in defensive EPA/Move) the Rams are within the combine.
