We made it to the Divisional spherical of the 2025 NFL playoffs! Congrats! That is arguably the very best weekend of soccer each season. Our upset picks for final week have been, how do I say this politely, crap. The Jags couldn’t hold Josh “Hero Ball” Allen from hero ballin, whereas the Chargers lack of offensive line remained an enormous obstacle to transferring the ball ahead. However, we’re going again to the properly this week. Let’s see if that candy underdog water is palatable this week.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)
The Patriots took it to the Chargers and their non-existent offensive line within the Wild Card spherical, however they’ll face a particularly scorching Texans protection this week. So scorching in actual fact, that Houston’s offense truly slowed down their protection in opposition to the Steelers within the first spherical. So long as the offense can cling onto the ball this week, they need to be arrange properly to maintain Drake Maye underneath stress most of the time. Protection is the nice equalizer and the Texans are peaking on the proper time.
Houston is 2nd in DVOA, each in opposition to the cross and the run this 12 months. In addition they rank first in EPA allowed per cross play, which is the place Maye excels, rating the Patriots as 1st in EPA per cross play. There isn’t any doubt Maye has been excellent, however a simple schedule helped his passing effectivity and he hasn’t confirmed he can beat a staff like Houston by the air as a result of he hasn’t performed a staff like Houston. Can he show me incorrect? Sure, sure he can, however many different good quarterbacks have been stopped chilly int inheritor tracks by this protection.
The largest query mark I see is the Texans offense. They have been extremely sloppy final week with turnovers, together with a number of miscues on the QB-center alternate. That is one thing they need to have the ability to clear up going into crucial recreation this franchise has had in an extended whereas. Fortunately they’ve a a lot better offensive line than the Chargers and will have the ability to transfer the ball higher than the Chargers final week.
Buffalo Payments (-1.5 )at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have the No. 1 seed and residential subject benefit, however are nonetheless slight underdogs to the Payments who simply beat Jaguars staff within the Wild Card spherical. It doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Broncos, who get further relaxation and a house recreation at elevation, however Josh Allen is a distinction maker to make certain.
Coming into this matchup I used to be leaning the Payments because of Allen’s superman capacity, however with Allen not at 100% well being, I’ve leaned again to the Broncos, who’ve the whole lot going for them this weekend. Moreover the remaining and true residence subject benefit as a result of elevation, the Broncos even have Sean Payton, who’s 4-0 after a bye, which incorporates his Tremendous Bowl win.
In the long run it’ll doubtless come right down to the Denver protection stopping a not 100% Allen. Simply how damage he’s, is an open query. He took a beating in opposition to the Jaguars and his foot was already hurting coming into that matchup. His foot, hand, and decrease leg all appear to be needing some consideration this week. He’ll play, however the Denver protection goes to have success. They rank third in rush protection DVOA and eighth in cross protection DVOA. Stopping James Cook dinner whereas shadowing Allen goes to be key.
Positive, Allen may nonetheless do his hero act once more this week, however this matchup goes to increase his skills additional than he’ll have the ability to attain.
