US market share is shrinking, however the pie continues to develop
The whole variety of internationally cell college students reached 7.3 million in 2025, in response to UNESCO, a quantity solely set to develop within the coming years.
However conventional pupil flows are altering. Whereas the US held 28% of the worldwide pupil market share in 2001, final 12 months that proportion had fallen to 16%, with additional declines anticipated throughout the ‘massive 4’ research locations.
Because the US continues to climate a interval of unprecedented coverage modifications and visa restrictions, AIEA delegates have been reminded of the enduring status of US academia and analysis and have been urged to profit from current markets.
“We will’t management immigration coverage or broader political rhetoric, however we will management how we present up for potential college students,” mentioned Megan Prettyman, VP accomplice success at UniQuest.
“In comparison with competitor markets, North American establishments usually lag in inquiry administration. This downside isn’t pushed by market situations – it’s purely execution,” she mentioned.
Prettyman highlighted comparative information exhibiting US establishments trailing behind counterparts in Australia, New Zealand and the UK in inquiry responses and follow-ups, emphasising the influence of the inquiry expertise on conversion charges.
“If the funnel narrows naturally, conversion effectivity turns into the most important development lever,” attendees heard.
In the meantime, regardless of acute challenges, audio system mentioned America’s capability to host worldwide college students was “unmatched” by competitor locations, with worldwide college students at the moment comprising 6% of the full pupil physique, in comparison with 25% and better throughout the opposite ‘massive 4’ locations.
TNE is not only a technique to “journey out the storm”
As visa restrictions, coverage uncertainty and affordability constraints proceed to dampen the attraction of the ‘massive 4’ research locations, transnational schooling (TNE) was on everybody’s lips as US establishments discover methods to stay globally aggressive.
“There are numerous conversations on worldwide department campuses and entry difficulties in getting right here to the US,” QS government director of the Americas Ben Webb advised the closing plenary, hailing “the nice pivot” in the direction of TNE and the promise of “schooling with out passports”.
However leaders warned delegates to not view TNE as a short-term coverage resolution: “You’ve received to think about it as a 20-year funding in a market somewhat than simply going there to journey out the storm,” mentioned Kirsten Fedderson, IDP vp of partnerships.
In the meantime, Acumen’s Noth America president Roger Brindley emphasised the “many variations on the TNE continuum”, encouraging college leaders to look past in-country department campuses and discover the potential for extra versatile and reasonably priced choices.
He highlighted the success of UK universities’ TNE methods, the place the variety of college students on TNE applications has surpassed 650,000 and nearly matched the variety of worldwide college students finding out within the UK.
“It’s solely possible there will likely be extra college students gaining an Australian diploma abroad than ever journey to Australia. And the query is for us and Canada… can we wish to be a part of that dialog?” Brindley requested.
You’ve received to think about TNE as a 20-year funding in a market somewhat than simply going there to journey out the storm
Kirsten Fedderson, IDP
Graduate enrolments face distinctive challenges, and alternatives
With IIE’s Fall Snapshot revealing a 12% decline in worldwide graduate enrolments this 12 months – as undergraduate ranges grew by 2% – delegates convened to talk about the distinctive challenges dealing with PhD and grasp’s recruitment, and the way establishments can strengthen this expertise pipeline.
“Graduate enrolment is distinctly susceptible in a number of areas,” mentioned Jessica Sandberg, IDP’s VP for exterior affairs USA, noting that recruitment was usually decentralised throughout campus, making methods much less adaptable to fast-paced coverage modifications.
What’s extra, “graduate college students have a shorter timeline, making them notably sensistive to political and financial circumstances as they will’t afford to wait and see if the state of affairs improves”, Sandberg defined.
Whereas giant variations exist throughout universities, nearly each delegate within the room mentioned their establishment had seen a dip in graduate enrolments this 12 months, with many elevating issues about candidates from Nigeria and Iran – locations which have lengthy despatched excessive ranges of PhD college students to the US, who are actually blocked by Trump’s journey ban.
Attendees’ experiences rang true with IDP’s fall 2025 pupil survey, wherein 40% of graduate college students indicated their notion of the US had worsened because the earlier 12 months, and 82% mentioned they now thought-about a number of research locations.
Notably, the survey discovered 66% of graduate college students would “positively change” or “rethink” their research vacation spot if post-study work alternatives have been eradicated – as threats to limit or abolish OPT proceed to loom giant over the US sector.
Amid the challenges, audio system mentioned well timed choice making was much more “essential” to conversion on the graduate stage and shared alternatives to foster worldwide partnerships round particular applications, together with attainable 1+1 and hybrid choices.
“We used to recruit for graduate after which we didn’t… and I feel it can come full circle,” mentioned Kiki Caruson, vp of USF World on the College of South Florida.
Caruson outlined the particular challenges dealing with Florida establishments, because the state legislature considers imposing a 5% cap on out-of-state enrolments at public universities – protecting each worldwide college students and home college students from exterior Florida.
“I hope it gained’t occur, however we’re making an attempt to be agile in future proofing, so if we have to pull again on undergraduate, our in-country representatives will flip to graduate… they usually can recruit for graduate simply as successfully as they will recruit for undergraduate,” she mentioned.
Insitutions are constructing resilience by partnership networks
Elsewhere within the convention, IIE introduced recent information from the primary iteration of its world partnerships survey, revealing regular development not solely within the significance of such hyperlinks, however the scrutiny they’re being subjected to in greater schooling and past.
With the primary section of the survey happening throughout the US, UK and Europe, 84% of respondents mentioned the worldwide partnership panorama had modified and over half reported having greater than 100 worldwide partnerships.
“Altering geopolitical relationships have dramatically affected worldwide partnership methods,” mentioned IIE analysis affiliate Susan Buck Sutton.
“There are extra partnerships, they’re stronger than ever, they’re doing extra issues and they’re unfold extra broadly… If there’s a sermon to this – and there may be – it’s that the community is primed for the challenges of the current that we’re all feeling,” she added.
The survey discovered worldwide partnerships have been changing into extra strategic, multi-functional, and punctiliously deliberate, with establishments broadening geopolitical portfolios and enhancing relationships with the worldwide south.
“The concept of signing MOUs for the sake of signing MOUs has modified during the last decade,” mentioned Sylvia Jons, director of IIE’s Centre for Worldwide Partnerships, highlighting a discount in ceremonial agreements with out exercise and rising accountability for the outcomes of such initiatives.
Drawing on themes of information and storytelling that emerged all through the convention, audio system emphasised the significance of utilizing the findings to “clarify these partnerships past ourselves” – not solely their financial influence however the values that may be translated for employers and governmental businesses, mentioned Buck Sutton.
