Outcomes
After a brand new constitution faculty opens close by, enrollment at native Catholic colleges falls by 2 p.c, or about six college students within the common measurement faculty, inside two years (see Determine 2). The detrimental impression on enrollment will increase over the subsequent decade. The chance of a Catholic faculty closing will increase after a constitution faculty opens, as properly. In Okay–8 colleges, a Catholic faculty’s chance of closing rises to about 1 to three.5 share factors in annually past the second yr after a constitution faculty opening. Along with the enrollment impacts, this means that throughout 5 years, enrollment at a Okay–8 Catholic faculty newly situated inside a five-mile radius of a constitution faculty will drop by almost 10 p.c and the chance the varsity will shut grows by greater than 4 share factors.
We additionally take a look at how a constitution opening impacts the racial composition of close by Catholic colleges. After a constitution opens, the share of white college students in close by Catholic colleges shrinks by 1.4 p.c, whereas a faculty’s percentages of each Black and Hispanic college students enhance barely.
Our evaluation depends on the belief that each affected and unaffected Catholic colleges had parallel enrollment traits earlier than a constitution opens and would have continued on the identical parallel path had the brand new faculty not come to city. Nonetheless, one other complicating issue was at play through the research interval. The fast charter-school growth of the early 2000s occurred simply as revelations of clergy intercourse abuse have been most prominently within the information, which can have influenced households’ selections to enroll or proceed in Catholic colleges. Certainly, a research by Ali Moghtaderi discovered that reviews of abuse after 2002, when media protection expanded dramatically nationwide, had a pronounced and lasting detrimental impression on Catholic faculty enrollment declines and closures.
We don’t consider that the timing and impression of the scandal have an effect on our findings. As a result of all Catholic colleges have been probably related to the church intercourse abuse scandal, each faculty skilled the detrimental impression no matter whether or not a constitution faculty opened close by. As an additional verify, we individually analyze enrollment and closure impacts from 1998 via 2002—the 4 years earlier than probably the most novel and substantial reviews of abuse have been made public—and discover the identical normal outcomes as these for the complete research interval.
Altering attitudes and state insurance policies to restrict the expansion of constitution colleges might additionally affect impacts on Catholic colleges. We evaluate impacts in states that cap charters to people who don’t restrict progress; in states with out caps, Catholic colleges expertise stronger and extra pronounced enrollment declines and elevated danger of closure. On common in a state with no constitution cap, Catholic faculty enrollment drops by 2.5 p.c two years after a brand new constitution opens close by in comparison with 2 p.c in a state that limits constitution progress.
