Authorities figures obtained by The PIE present 62% of candidates have been refused a examine allow from January to July this yr, with record-high volumes “elevating pressing questions on transparency and software readiness,” stated ApplyBoard.
Regardless of a decade of comparatively secure approval scores hovering round 60%, charges have plummeted to 38% to date this yr, down from 48% in 2024 following the implementation of Canada’s examine allow caps.
“It’s clear that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is making use of far better scrutiny to new purposes,” Jonathan Sherman, vice chairman of gross sales & partnership at BorderPass instructed The PIE, pointing to a “basic shift” in authorities processing.
Indian college students – who comprise 40% of Canada’s worldwide pupil inhabitants – have been hardest hit by hovering refusals, with 4 out of 5 Indian college students receiving rejections in Q2 2025, based on BorderPass.
Stakeholders have pointed to a glimmer of hope in general approval scores rising modestly this spring, although with out a “dramatic shift,” Canada will solely attain one fifth of the federal government’s worldwide pupil goal for the yr, Sherman warned.
With establishments bracing for extreme declines, ApplyBoard evaluation has discovered the most typical cause for cause for rejection in 2024 was the notion by IRCC officers that college students wouldn’t go away Canada after their research, cited in over 75% of circumstances.
“Whereas reviewers at IRCC perceive that some future college students hope to realize work expertise in Canada after commencement… the in depth use of this cause final yr means that many are perceived as having everlasting residency as their major objective, as an alternative of examine,” said the report.
Monetary considerations drove three of the highest 5 refusal causes, after Canada greater than doubled its proof-of-funds necessities from $10,000 in 2023 to $20,635 in 2024.
Particularly, in 53% of circumstances, IRCC officers stated they have been unconvinced that candidates would depart Canada primarily based on monetary property, alongside doubts about inadequate assets for tuition and residing bills.
“Whereas new coverage caps performed a task, our full-year information factors to recurring applicant challenges, significantly round monetary readiness and immigration intent which are preventable with the suitable steerage and documentation,” stated ApplyBoard.
The report highlighted the persevering with decline of unspecified causes for refusal, following IRCC including officer choice notes to visa refusal letters final month, which was welcomed as a much-needed step in enhancing transparency.
Different causes for refusal embrace the aim of go to being inconsistent with a short lived keep and having no important household ties outdoors Canada.
The information comes amid a serious immigration crackdown in Canada, with non permanent resident targets included within the newest Immigration Ranges Plan for the primary time, which goals to scale back non permanent resident volumes to five% of the inhabitants by the tip of 2027 – a yr later than the earlier authorities’s goal.
Many are perceived as having everlasting residency as their major objective, as an alternative of examine
ApplyBoard
Approval charges are additionally beneath common for different non permanent resident classes, however none so drastically as examine permits, with slightly below half of all customer visas permitted to date this yr, in comparison with a ten-year common of 64%.
After greater than 18 months of federal coverage turbulence, altering eligibility guidelines have probably contributed to the rise in examine allow rejection charges.
Strain to scale back IRCC backlogs and attain bold authorities targets is also taking part in a task, based on immigration legal professionals chatting with the Toronto Star.
As of July 31, over 40% of Canada’s immigration stock was in backlog, together with 56% of customer visas, 46% of labor visas and 23% of examine visas, based on official information.
Following a swathe of latest IRCC officer hires, Sherman stated he anticipated to see enhancements in consistency, although “processing backlogs could worsen earlier than they get higher,” he warned.
Amid the challenges, educators and advisers are doubling down on what candidates and establishments can do to make sure the perfect likelihood of success, with ApplyBoard warning that any incomplete or ineligible documentation might be grounds for refusal.
