OPINION — “There is no doubt that America’s adversaries are trafficking fentanyl into america partially as a result of they need to kill Individuals. If this had been a conflict, that will be one of many worst wars. I imagine they killed during the last 5 or 6 years, per 12 months, 200-to-300,000 folks. You hear a few 100,000, which is lots of people, however the quantity is way increased than that. That is been confirmed.”
That was President Trump within the Oval Workplace on December 15, explaining why he was signing an Govt Order (EO) designating “illicit fentanyl and its core precursor chemical compounds as Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).”
Discover Trump’s use of the phrase “conflict,” and the huge exaggeration of numbers of fentanyl drug deaths within the U.S. — really 48,000 in 2024. Additionally, does anybody actually suppose that the cartels are pushing fentanyl into this nation “to kill Individuals?” Or is the true cause they’re doing it’s to earn money – as is the case with most drug sellers.
I’m specializing in this quite odd EO as a result of to me it’s one other signal that President Trump is bringing the U.S. army into one more primarily home American drawback, drug use. I additionally see it because the Trump administration regularizing employment of the U.S. army to be a standard response to regulate civil points.
Keep in mind, President Trump has employed some 9,000 energetic and Nationwide Guard service members on the U.S. southern border to dam what he termed an invasion of unlawful immigrants. He has additionally federalized Nationwide Guard troops in U.S. cities like Washington, D.C. claiming they had been wanted to fight crime, and required tons of of Marines and initially 4,000 California Nationwide Guard personnel in Los Angeles to place down protests in opposition to immigration raids.
There was even a army ambiance within the Oval Workplace on December 15, as a result of the President used that very same assembly to make the primary awards of a Mexican Border Protection Medal to 13 Military and Marine service members who offered army help to the Division of Homeland Safety and U.S. Customs and Border Safety.
Within the Oval Workplace assembly, Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth defined that the newly-issued medal precisely replicated the 1918 Mexican Border Protection Medal, however that one went to U.S. troops who patrolled the border throughout 1916-1917, when concern was of a German-inspired invasion by the paramilitary forces of Francisco “Pancho” Villa as a part of the Mexican Revolution.
The Cipher Transient brings expert-level context to nationwide and world safety tales. It’s by no means been extra vital to grasp what’s occurring on this planet. Improve your entry to unique content material by changing into a subscriber.
Whereas President Trump stated that “to kill Individuals” was a objective of trafficking fentanyl, the EO itself stated there was a extra complicated purpose. The EO stated, “The manufacturing and sale of fentanyl by Overseas Terrorist Organizations and cartels fund these entities’ operations — which embrace assassinations, terrorist acts, and insurgencies all over the world — and permit these entities to erode our home safety and the well-being of our Nation.”
Right here, this EO seeks to hyperlink up with one in every of President Trump’s first EOs, signed on January 20, that designated unspecified cartels as Overseas Terrorists Organizations to make them topic to legal guidelines Congress handed within the wake of the September 11, 2001, assaults.
The brand new December 15 EO goes on to say, “The 2 cartels which might be predominantly chargeable for the distribution of fentanyl in america interact in armed battle over territory and to guard their operations, leading to large-scale violence and dying that transcend the speedy menace of fentanyl itself.”
Inexplicably, the EO doesn’t identify these two cartels.
Nonetheless, the Drug Enforcement Company (DEA) in its 2025 Nationwide Drug Menace Evaluation makes it clear who they’re by saying, “The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Era Cartels, specifically, management clandestine [fentanyl] manufacturing websites in Mexico, smuggling routes into america, and distribution hubs in key U.S. cities.”
Then each the brand new EO and 2025 Nationwide Drug Menace Evaluation carry the very same following sentence: “Additional, the potential for fentanyl to be weaponized for concentrated, large-scale terror assaults by organized adversaries is a critical menace to america.”
It seems that again within the Nineteen Nineties, a lot of international locations investigated utilizing fentanyl as a part of an incapacitating agent, together with the U.S. Protection Division. The U.S. dropped the concept due to a margin of security subject – the distinction between a dosage that will incapacitate and one that will kill an individual.
Nonetheless the Russians did create a fentanyl-based incapacitating agent and used it in October 2002, when 40 Chechen terrorists seized Moscow’s Dubrovka Theater and held some 800 folks hostage. Russians lastly launched the fentanyl-based fuel to incapacitate these within the theater and it killed some 130 of them.
Fentanyl is an FDA-approved artificial opioid used medically as a ache reliever and anesthetic. It’s near 100 occasions stronger than morphine. Two milligrams of fentanyl — equal to 10-to-15 grains of desk salt – might be deadly. In contrast to different unlawful medication comparable to cocaine, wholesale traffickers distribute fentanyl by the kilogram, equal to 2.2 kilos.
The DEA has discovered vast U.S. utilization of illicit, manufactured, counterfeit fentanyl drugs starting from .02 to five.1 milligrams, the latter greater than twice the deadly dose relying on an individual’s physique dimension, tolerance and previous utilization.
Fentanyl unlawful drug use has been a significant drawback within the U.S. since 2021 when overdose deaths reached 71,000. However as proven above overdose fentanyl deaths are on the best way down. President Trump even acknowledged fentanyl use had gone down saying within the Oval Workplace on December 15, “We have additionally achieved a 50% drop within the quantity of fentanyl coming throughout the border and China is working with us very intently and bringing down the quantity and the quantity of fentanyl that is being shipped…We have it all the way down to a a lot decrease quantity.” However Trump added, “Not passable, however it will likely be passable quickly.”
Subscriber+Members get unique entry to expert-driven briefings on the highest nationwide safety points we face at present. Achieve entry to avoid wasting your digital seat now.
The time period “weapon of mass destruction” has particular authorized definitions, usually tied to nuclear, radiological, chemical, or organic weapons which might be designed to trigger large-scale dying or bodily hurt.
Underneath the Trump WMD EO, implementation requires Protection Secretary Hegseth and Legal professional Normal Pam Bondi to find out if the U.S. army is required to implement 10 U.S.C. 282, a post-9/11, 2002 counterterrorism legislation protecting emergency conditions involving weapons of mass destruction.
In the event that they agree the army is required, below 10 U.S.C. 282 Hegseth and Bondi are to “collectively prescribe laws in regards to the sorts of help that could be offered,” and “describe the actions that Division of Protection personnel could soak up circumstances incident to the availability of help.”
There are provisions in 10 U.S.C. 282 prohibiting the army from authority to arrest people, straight take part in searches or seizures of proof associated legislation violations or assortment of intelligence for legislation enforcement – however these provisions additionally can be waived.
As well as, below the Trump EO, Hegseth is to seek the advice of with Secretary of Homeland Safety Kristi Noem to “replace all directives concerning the Armed Forces’ response to chemical incidents within the homeland to incorporate the specter of illicit fentanyl.”
I’m going into all these particulars as a result of I imagine one thing apart from fentanyl is concerned right here. Others are questioning the December 15 EO, comparable to Andrew McCarthy in Nationwide Evaluate on December 20.
McCarthy wrote, “President Trump could despise ‘ceaselessly wars,’ however he positive appears to love faux wars. The purpose of the fentanyl ‘designation’ is to shore up his case for utilizing army pressure in opposition to drug traffickers — though its relevance to excessive seas round Venezuela is tough to fathom since fentanyl is neither produced nor imported from there. At any charge, fentanyl, a harmful drug however one with reputable medical makes use of, is a narcotic, not a weapon of mass destruction akin to a chemical or organic bomb.”
Yesterday, Army.com identified, “The [December 15] Govt Order doesn’t spell out a particular army mission, and Pentagon officers haven’t but acknowledged whether or not the armed forces will tackle a direct function below the brand new designation.”
Nonetheless, the EO creates one more new, home space for army operations throughout the homeland, and what emerges must be watched.
The Cipher Transient is dedicated to publishing a spread of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals.
Opinions expressed are these of the creator and don’t characterize the views or opinions of The Cipher Transient.
Have a perspective to share primarily based in your expertise within the nationwide safety discipline? Ship it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Transient, as a result of nationwide safety is everybody’s enterprise.
