On December 30, 2025, Moscow claimed a Ukrainian drone assault focused Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence. Russian International Minister Sergei Lavrov threatened his nation’s navy would launch “retaliatory strikes” and stated Moscow’s “negotiating place will probably be revised” in ongoing talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the claimed drone assault as “an entire fabrication”, and sources say the CIA assessed that Ukraine was not focusing on the Russian chief’s residence within the assault.
President Trump stated in December that the U.S. was “very shut” to a deal. So, what’s occurring?
All through the most recent push for peace, Russia appears to conveniently reset the clock, demanding additional talks because it continues its bombardments and assaults throughout Ukraine.
“This Russian strike sends a particularly clear sign about Russia’s priorities,” Zelensky stated in a publish on X referring to a strike on December 23 that killed three individuals and injured 12. Zeleneky condemned the assault “forward of Christmas, when individuals merely wish to be with their households, at house, and secure.”
That strike got here simply days after Putin instructed Russian protection ministry officers that Moscow will persist in its mission to “liberate its historic lands” and obtain its warfare objectives “unconditionally” — by negotiations for an settlement in Moscow’s favor, or via continued warfare.
The continued Russian assaults and Putin’s bellicose language underscore a sample that has outlined Russia’s place on “peace” all through its full-scale invasion of Ukraine: not budging from maximalist calls for, blaming Kyiv for the dearth of progress, and leveraging Western fears of escalation to World Conflict Three.
The hardline from Putin comes as Ukraine has provided important concessions, together with Ukraine dropping NATO membership ambitions, for not less than the time being, in addition to a possible withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the east and the creation of a demilitarized “free financial zone.” The newest stories say Russia nonetheless needs extra, together with extra stringent restrictions on the dimension of Ukraine’s navy.
“The Ukrainians have been saying for over a yr that they’re prepared to come back to an settlement. They’re able to be sensible and compromise,” Glenn Corn, a former senior CIA Officer instructed The Cipher Temporary. “It’s the Russians that aren’t doing that. It’s the Russians that proceed to push maximalist calls for and that proceed to scuttle the peace course of — not the Ukrainians.”
By way of the eyes of seasoned intelligence professionals who’ve studied Putin’s actions for many years, the continued assaults regardless of peace talks are hardly stunning. “Putin has by no means been honest a couple of negotiated answer to his ‘Particular Navy Operation,’” stated Rob Dannenberg, former Chief of CIA’s Central Eurasia Division.
Russia can also be persevering with offensive pushes on a number of fronts, together with within the areas it claimed to annex – Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, the place the embattled strategic metropolis of Pokrovsk is – in addition to within the northern Kharkiv area. Consultants warn Putin’s ambitions go far past.
“We have got Putin on the opposite facet of it and the fact is he has not taken one single step in the direction of a short lived ceasefire or a peace deal in any respect,” Normal Jack Keane (Ret.), who served as Vice Chief of Workers of the U.S. Military and is a trusted advisor to President Donald Trump, instructed Fox Information. “The place he’s, he nonetheless believes that ultimately he’ll break the need and resolve of the US and the Europeans and the Zelensky authorities and he’ll ultimately have his approach right here,” Keane stated, including that Putin’s final warfare purpose is to “topple the federal government of Ukraine and broaden into Jap Europe.”
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A Examined Playbook
Russia has lengthy used the pretense of openness to negotiations as a device to deceive, delay, and fracture Western assist for these Moscow is focusing on. The sample was seen in Georgia in 2008 and once more in Crimea in 2014, when Moscow signaled willingness to speak even because it consolidated navy beneficial properties on the bottom, shopping for time and weakening Western responses.
“I at all times use the instance of Syria throughout the Civil Conflict once they [Russian forces] have been killing members of the Syrian opposition whereas they have been ingesting wine and occasional with American and European interlocutors in Europe, claiming that they have been looking for an settlement,” Corn instructed The Cipher Temporary.
Certainly, behind any Russian assertion of openness to engagement and dialogue, Putin has continued to say that Ukraine is a part of Russia, that the federal government of Zelensky is illegitimate, and that Russian forces can obtain victory on the battlefield to justify his stonewalling — regardless of mounting prices for Russia and restricted territorial beneficial properties.
“Putin’s technique has been constant: advance false narratives; undertake a non-negotiable maximalist place and make ever-increasing calls for for concessions; take deliberate actions to erode U.S., Ukrainian, and NATO resolve and perceived choices; make use of implicit and specific threats and intimidation; and provide false selections,” former CIA Senior Govt Dave Pitts instructed The Cipher Temporary.
“Taken collectively, these signify Russian ‘reflexive management’—a subset of cognitive warfare and a technique designed to steer adversaries to voluntarily undertake outcomes favorable to Russia,” Pitts instructed us. “Within the face of unreasonable sovereignty and territorial calls for positioned on Ukraine and none positioned on Russia, an emboldened and assured Putin will now doubtless demand much more.”
A Hesitant West
How did we get right here? Some consultants say a long-running sample of Western hesitation in conserving Russia in test has emboldened Moscow. It’s not onerous to do not forget that at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Western international locations have been gradual to offer full navy assist to Ukraine, involved a couple of attainable wider escalation.
Retired Normal Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, instructed The Cipher Temporary, “We’ve got taken valuable little motion to cease the combat in Ukraine and we nonetheless discover ourselves saying, ‘We’re not going to try this as a result of we have to offer peace an opportunity and we do not wish to escalate the issue.’ And that formulation will not be working now and has not labored for 11 years.”
“We’ve got just about enabled the Russian warfare on Ukraine by our lack of motion in a extra extreme approach. Many people from navy backgrounds say that we now have constructed sanctuary for Russia. From that sanctuary, we permit them to assault Ukraine.”
Consultants warn that whereas the purpose needs to be, as President Donald Trump has stated, “to cease the killing,” awarding concessions to a Kremlin that has but to drop its maximalist warfare goals will not be the answer.
“The Trump Administration’s need to finish the violence in Ukraine is commendable, however not on the value of setting the stage for the following warfare by giving victory to the aggressor,” Dannenberg instructed The Cipher Temporary.
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The Street Forward
With peace talks ongoing, it’s proving troublesome to give you a deal that doesn’t power Ukraine to offer an excessive amount of whereas guaranteeing the proposal doesn’t push Russia to reject the deal outright.
However past the negotiating desk, consultants say there are methods to stress Putin to peace.
Ukraine will not be ready, persevering with strikes on Russian power infrastructure to curb power export revenues that fund Moscow’s warfare machine, and bringing the price of the warfare again to bizarre Russians.
For the U.S. and Europe, main sanctions on Russia – together with new measures in opposition to Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil – are already in place and reportedly beginning to take their toll, however consultants say stronger enforcement is required to make them really chunk.
Sustaining navy help to Ukraine can also be important. In mid-December, Congress handed a protection invoice that authorizes $800 million for Ukraine – $400 million in every of the following two years – as a part of the Ukraine Safety Help Initiative, which pays U.S. firms to supply weapons for Ukraine’s navy. President Trump signed the measure into legislation on December 18. In the meantime, whereas Europeans didn’t agree to make use of frozen Russian property to again a mortgage for Ukraine, the EU agreed to a 90 billion euro mortgage over the following two years, backed by the bloc’s finances.
“The Trump Administration ought to exhibit its displeasure at Russia’s clear disregard for any so-called peace course of by totally imposing all present sanctions, offering Ukraine with long-range weapons, and declaring that peace negotiations are suspended till Russia demonstrates it’s severe about these negotiations,” Normal Ben Hodges, former Commanding Normal of U.S. Military Europe, instructed The Cipher Temporary. “In any other case, the President’s efforts and people of his negotiators are clearly a waste of time and headed nowhere.”
European international locations have additionally fortified post-war pledges to Ukraine. Britain and France have dedicated to sending troops to a peacekeeping mission — if a peace deal is reached. Consultants U.S. intelligence, command and management, and logistics assist is required to offer any European effort credibility.
The impression will probably be felt far past Ukraine, and lengthy after the weapons there go silent.
“For the US, the perfect end result will come from taking the longer, more durable highway that denies any reward for Russia’s unlawful invasion, forces Putin to make affordable concessions, and sustains the long-term sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,” Pitts stated. “That longer, more durable highway additionally results in stronger U.S. nationwide safety.
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