EXPERT OPINION — I’m carefully watching the rising measurement and momentum of protesters throughout Iran’s cities, rural areas, and pious communities who’re bravely and vocally rejecting the Supreme Chief’s damaged insurance policies. They’ve shined a light-weight on Khamenei’s gross mismanagement of the financial system and the extreme multi-year drought; his fixed agitation and hostile relations with neighbors; Iran’s lack of status and affect with coreligionist communities in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria; his failures towards international assaults; and his misguided alliance with Russia towards Ukraine. Even regime loyalists have begun murmuring such complaints.
Regime instability indicators and warnings are blinking. I consider Iran’s revolutionary facade is crumbling, however into an unsure future.
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As extra protesters demand a greater future, I’m looking forward to proof of leniency from their fathers, brothers, uncles, and schoolmates who work within the IRGC, the police, and even within the Basij. If such cracks seem, new non-revolutionary leaders might emerge as rapidly as al-Sharaa rose to energy in Syria.
Protesters, nonetheless, more than likely lack expertise operating cities, provinces, and the federal authorities. New non-revolutionary leaders subsequently most likely would look to the U.S. for assurance and assist – and instantly.
If the protests produce a brand new Supreme Chief below a revolutionary Velāyat-e Faqih theocracy mannequin, nonetheless, the long run appears to be like fairly darkish. Crackdowns would most likely be fairly harsh and swift, the nuclear program would more than likely march on, and Tehran undoubtedly would maintain funneling cash and arms to trusted proxies that threaten the U.S. and Israel.
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I’ve been engaged on Iranian points since 1979 as an instructional, diplomat, intelligence officer, and now as a professor of follow. Nothing, for my part, would stabilize the area between the Black Sea, Jap Mediterranean, and the Persian Gulf sooner than a peaceable, non-nuclear and rich Iran that acknowledges the state of Israel and distances itself from Russia.
Most pendulums finally swing, and I’m looking forward to this one to swing in assist of the Iranian folks lastly having an opportunity to rejoin a group of free nations that worth peace, prosperity, and democracy. If non-revolutionary leaders have been to emerge, the West might lastly and rapidly work in direction of restoring a genuinely peaceable future that ends Tehran’s nuclear weapons program; breaks its lethal alliance with Russia; terminates its expensive assist to Hizballah, Hamas, and the Houthis; and welcomes Iran into the group of countries as a accountable, wealth-producing world power associate. Could the pendulum swing decisively in these instructions in 2026.
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