OPINION — The 2026 Nationwide Protection Technique (NDS) follows carefully the 2025 Nationwide Safety Technique, because it ought to. It additionally falls in step with the Division of Protection’s narrative and the actions they’ve taken concerning priorities. The NDS has 4 strains of effort:
- Defending the U.S. Homeland – Homeland protection is the highest precedence, with the Western Hemisphere elevated above different areas. This consists of border safety, open strains of transportation (Panama Canal and Greenland), counter-narcotics operations, and countering adversary affect. This isn’t a shock.
- Deterring China within the Indo-Pacific – The strategy focuses on deterrence via navy energy somewhat than confrontation, aiming to stop Chinese language dominance whereas avoiding battle. The technique emphasizes expanded military-to-military communication with Beijing to cut back battle dangers. It nonetheless cites China’s predatory behaviors and makes clear that China is the second highest precedence.
- Rising Burden-Sharing with Allies – The doc argues that allies should considerably improve protection spending, pointing to a brand new world benchmark of 5% of GDP for defense-related expenditures. It additionally calls on allies to maintain watch towards threats of their a part of the world in order that the US can deal with the Western Hemisphere.
- Revitalizing the U.S. Protection Industrial Base – Described as a once-in-a-century effort important for navy readiness, offering energy to discourage the US from getting embroiled in a conflict, and, if wanted, the power to supply weapons at scale throughout crises.
Notable Omissions
- The technique makes no particular point out of or assure to Taiwan, not like the 2022 Biden period technique which explicitly supported Taiwan’s self-defense. It additionally omits local weather change as a safety menace, which the Biden administration had recognized.
- Maybe, probably the most regarding situation is that the NDS doesn’t point out Ukraine. It might have been simple to name out Ukraine’s successes towards Russia as the instance for a way the technique forecasts the behaviors it seeks from our allies. It additionally characterizes Russia as a persistent however manageable menace, in impact relegating Russia on the finish of the day as inconsequential to the US. This underestimates Moscow’s capability to trigger havoc past Ukraine. It is also very similar to waving the pink flag on the bull. Moscow is not going to like being thought-about a minor participant on the world stage.
Is Cognitive Warfare Nonetheless a Factor?
Whereas the Protection Industrial Base known as out as necessary as is the necessity for weapons methods and platforms, there’s nothing within the doc about rising actions within the cognitive warfare space. That is an space the place the US must step up. There are statements all through the NDS the place one can learn into the necessity for cognitive warfare. The NDS talks about offering choices within the areas previous to conflict and being prepared if the US should go to conflict. These statements help rising intelligence help and non-kinetic choices for determination makers. Particularly, the NDS says:
- …this Technique will be sure that we see issues and the alternatives we have to make clearly.
For decisionmakers to “see issues” and perceive the panorama and to supply them choices or decisions they are going to want a powerful intelligence group that may acquire the data wanted to supply warning and articulate the threats we face. This similar group will then have the ability to analyze the adversaries’ responses to decisions that we make and assist inform decisionmakers on what path may work greatest.
- ….together with by main efforts to discourage or defend towards different, lesser threats
Once more, to discourage adversaries, not solely does the adversary should concern your kinetic response but additionally what you are able to do behind the scene. Moreover, cognitive warfare can prep the battle area, even when we don’t in the end resort to a battle area. Affect operations may play an enormous position in deterrence.
- · ….associate with ….different federal departments and companies to reinvigorate and mobilize our nice nation’s unequalled creativity and ingenuity, re-spark our progressive spirit….
This assertion appears to be right here to help requires elevated irregular warfare actions. Creativity and ingenuity are the hallmark for cognitive warfare and the Division can greatest help actions inside the cognitive warfare or irregular warfare area by partnering with different federal departments and companies.
Conclusion
There’s nothing shocking within the NDS and that could be a good factor. If the NDS had not carefully matched the Nationwide Safety Technique or the course now we have witnessed the Division headed within the final yr, one thing would have been off. What the NDS does do is present the navy and the Protection Intelligence Enterprise with a strategic framework for priorities. The Nationwide Intelligence Technique ought to observe subsequent. Whereas the regional priorities in a Nationwide Intelligence Technique shouldn’t be shocking, it is going to be illuminating to see the strategic course that the Director of Nationwide Intelligence units for a way the intelligence group ought to transfer ahead.
The NDS priorities imply that there shall be some changes to assets. Reporting signifies that there might quickly be adjustments to the unified command plan whereby US SOUTHCOM and NORTHCOM shall be mixed into an America’s Command. There may also should be an adjustment to assets, each cash and other people to have the ability to fulfill the NDS mandate. Such a change will take time to construct. Experience doesn’t come in a single day.
The Division might want to make main adjustments in acquisition and contracting to have the ability to develop the capabilities the NDS has referred to as in and out the time-frame it calls for. It’s clear that the Division is shifting in that course.
There are repercussions for our companions and our adversaries. Extra shall be anticipated of our companions however once more, the administration has been clear on that situation and when pressed, our companions have proven that they’ll step up.
Lastly, the NDS is obvious that the US just isn’t searching for a struggle. Nevertheless, it’s also clear that if our adversaries transfer in that course, we shall be ready to push again. We have to guarantee that we’re and put extra deal with cognitive warfare to assist us be ready but additionally to maintain us out of a kinetic struggle!
The Cipher Temporary is dedicated to publishing a spread of views on nationwide safety points submitted by deeply skilled nationwide safety professionals. Opinions expressed are these of the writer and don’t characterize the views or opinions of The Cipher Temporary.
Have a perspective to share primarily based in your expertise within the nationwide safety discipline? Ship it to Editor@thecipherbrief.com for publication consideration.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Temporary
