OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – The Russian state media’s triumphant protection of Vladimir Putin’s August 15 assembly with Donald Trump in Alaska tells a well-recognized story: the good chief Putin has as soon as once more outmaneuvered the West, damaged his worldwide isolation, and secured recognition as an equal on the world stage. The fact, nevertheless, tells a unique story solely.
Whereas Putin’s propagandists work time beyond regulation to spin the Alaska assembly as a diplomatic victory, the info reveal a Russian president who traveled hundreds of kilometers solely to return dwelling empty-handed, his battle machine no nearer to attaining its aims in Ukraine than it was earlier than the assembly.
Due to what seems to be U.S. planning paperwork unintentionally left on a lodge printer as reported by Nationwide Public Radio, now we have a clearer image of what Putin might have hoped to realize in Alaska, and what he spectacularly did not safe. The unique itinerary included an expanded working lunch with senior U.S. financial officers, together with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Steve Lutnik. Their presence would have signaled American willingness to debate sanctions aid and expanded commerce, the financial lifeline Putin desperately wants as his battle financial system strains below worldwide strain.
As a substitute, Putin discovered himself in abbreviated conferences with a U.S. president who refused to supply any significant concessions with out concrete steps towards ending the battle in Ukraine. No non-public tête-à-tête, no financial discussions, no guarantees of sanctions aid – simply the identical message the Kremlin has been listening to from the West for over three years now: finish the battle, then we will speak.
The distinction between Putin’s return journey and Trump’s is especially telling. Whereas Trump spent his flight consulting with European allies and introduced that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would go to the White Home simply days later, Putin’s “diplomatic triumph” consisted of a manufacturing unit go to in provincial Magadan, and a telephone name along with his Belarusian vassal Alexander Lukashenko. For a person who as soon as commanded consideration on the worldwide stage, this can be a remarkably diminished itinerary.
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The Kremlin’s makes an attempt to focus on elevated U.S.-Russia commerce since Trump’s return to workplace solely underscore Putin’s weak place. These modest will increase pale compared to the huge financial injury inflicted by three years of sanctions and worldwide isolation.
Russia’s financial system stays essentially distorted by navy spending, its demographic disaster deepened by mobilization and emigration, and its technological sector crippled by export restrictions.
What Putin obtained in Alaska was not recognition of Russian energy, however a last diplomatic alternative that he seems to have squandered by way of his continued insistence on maximalist calls for in Ukraine. Trump’s willingness to fulfill, regardless of vital home political dangers, represented precisely the type of face-saving diplomatic opening {that a} extra pragmatic Russian chief may need seized upon to start extracting his nation from an more and more expensive quagmire.
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As a substitute, Putin’s intransigence has left him extra remoted than ever. His remaining worldwide companions -China, India, Turkey, and the UAE – proceed to have interaction with Moscow primarily for their very own financial pursuits, not out of respect for Russian energy or Putin’s management. However even these relationships are more and more transactional, with companions fastidiously avoiding actions which may set off secondary sanctions.
Essentially the most damaging side of Putin’s missed alternative in Alaska will not be what he failed to realize internationally, however what his empty-handed return indicators domestically.
Three years right into a “particular navy operation” that was purported to final days, the Russian president has little to point out his inhabitants past mounting casualties, financial hardship, and diplomatic isolation. His incapacity to safe significant concessions from the US, even from a president theoretically extra sympathetic to Russian issues, exposes the elemental weak point of his place.
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Putin’s battle has not made Russia stronger or extra revered; it has made the nation a pariah state depending on more and more expensive relationships with authoritarian regimes. His Alaska journey, fairly than marking Russia’s return to nice energy standing, as an alternative highlights how far the nation has fallen from its post-Soviet aspirations to rejoin the neighborhood of civilized nations.
The tragedy is that Putin’s stubbornness is prolonging a battle that’s devastating not simply Ukraine, however Russia itself. Day by day the battle continues, extra Russian households lose sons and fathers, the financial system turns into extra distorted by navy spending, and the nation’s worldwide isolation deepens. The diplomatic window that Trump opened in Alaska might not stay open indefinitely, and Putin’s subsequent alternative for a face-saving exit might come at an excellent steeper value.
For atypical Russians watching state tv celebrations of their president’s “diplomatic victory,” the query needs to be easy: if Putin received so decisively in Alaska, why is the battle nonetheless grinding on, why are sanctions nonetheless crushing the financial system, and why is Russia extra remoted than ever? The reply, sadly, is that there was no victory in any respect – solely one other missed alternative for a frontrunner more and more disconnected from each worldwide realities and his personal individuals’s pursuits.
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