by Jill Barshay, The Hechinger Report
December 8, 2025
California lastly rolled out free preschool for all 4-year-olds within the 2025-26 college yr, after greater than a decade of increasing what the state calls transitional kindergarten. Many advocates hoped the transfer would ease little one care shortages and shut studying gaps between wealthy and poor. However a brand new College of California, Berkeley, research of Los Angeles exhibits the alternative occurred: Greater than 150 little one care facilities closed, and the largest beneficiaries have been households within the metropolis’s wealthiest neighborhoods.
Why does free preschool generally backfire? The Berkeley report can’t definitively reply that, however the research’s lead writer, Bruce Fuller, a retired Berkeley sociologist who has studied early childhood schooling for many years, says the brand new public college seats siphoned 4-year-olds away from group little one care facilities and personal preschools. Many facilities misplaced income when kids left, and it wasn’t simple to pivot to serving youthful toddlers or infants.
“We discovered this worrisome discovering that the loss of life fee, so to talk, of pre-Okay facilities has accelerated for the reason that governor moved towards common entry” to transitional kindergarten, Fuller stated. “Non-public pay facilities can’t survive.”
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(California calls it transitional kindergarten as a result of it was initially a bridge between preschool and kindergarten for the youngest kindergarteners. However its growth, fairly speedy since 2022, has reworked it into what the remainder of the nation would name preschool for 4-year-olds.)
From 2020 to 2024, 167 Los Angeles County pre-Okay facilities closed their doorways or let their preschool licenses expire. That erased 12,000 little one care slots. Many communities misplaced extra little one care seats than they gained in new public preschool ones. For instance, public preschool enrollments climbed by 152 kids within the Rolling Hills-Palos Verdes space, however the group then misplaced 4 pre-Okay facilities or licensees, eliminating 316 little one slots. In middle-class areas, akin to Northridge, public preschool enrollments climbed by 96 kids, whereas three pre-Okay facilities shut down, a lack of 184 areas for preschool kids.
As transitional kindergarten elevated, slots for 3- and 4-year-olds in private and non-private pre-Okay facilities decreased
Fuller’s crew additionally discovered that households within the highest-income communities have been the almost certainly to use for the brand new preschool seats at public faculties. Within the wealthiest fifth of ZIP codes of Los Angeles County, akin to Brentwood, demand for public preschool skyrocketed 148 % as households opted for a free program as a substitute of paying as a lot as $36,000 a yr for personal preschool.
In the meantime, enrollment rose simply 50 % within the poorest fifth of ZIP codes, the place many households caught with sponsored little one care facilities or kin — particularly since some public faculties provided solely a half-day choice.
The complete impact on the kid care sector remains to be unsure. California allowed little one care facilities that obtain subsidies to retain their pre-pandemic budgets at the same time as they misplaced 4-year-olds. That “maintain innocent” subsidy is slated to finish in July 2026, and extra closures are anticipated to comply with.
Policymakers hoped the brand new public college seats would liberate scarce little one care slots for youthful kids, as 4-year-olds flocked to the general public faculties. However there have been many regulatory and monetary hurdles that hindered pivoting to youthful kids.
“It is not simply flipping a swap to say this classroom is now going to serve 2- year-olds,” stated Nina Buthee, government director of EveryChild California, which advocates for publicly funded little one care and early schooling. Operators must reconfigure lecture rooms, set up new sprinkler methods and rent much more lecturers, Buthee defined.
“It’s a nightmare,” she stated. “You want to get the OK by the fireplace marshal, and you want to get the OK by the group care licensing division of the Division of Social Providers. That, in itself, takes six to 12 months, and that’s solely if in case you have the cash to have the ability to shut that classroom and pay for these renovations, after which have new kids prepared for if you’re reopening.” Many operators determined it was simpler to close down, she stated.
Associated: In two locations, researchers discover issues with growth of free pre-Okay
Extra importantly, Buthee stated the economics of kid care facilities depend on older 3- and 4-year-olds, who’re cheaper to care for. State rules require one instructor for each three or 4 infants or toddlers. For 4-year-olds, it’s one instructor for each 12 kids.
In line with Buthee, most little one care facilities function their toddler packages at a slight loss and offset that with income from their preschoolers. “If you’re dropping these preschoolers, there are not any funds to make up,” stated Buthee. “The entire enterprise mannequin fully falls aside.”
Los Angeles officers are conscious of the issues. ”The growth of transitional kindergarten throughout California has many advantages, in addition to unintended penalties,” a spokesperson from the Workplace for the Development of Early Care and Schooling throughout the Los Angeles County Division of Public Well being stated in an electronic mail. That workplace is attempting to assist little one care and early schooling operators navigate the difficult market and revealed a brand new guidebook of economic and enterprise sources in October 2025.
One clear lesson, in keeping with each Fuller and Buthee, is to permit group little one care facilities to be a part of the growth of publicly funded preschool packages relatively than simply public faculties. That means, as a substitute of dropping kids and income, these facilities can maintain on to older children and proceed working. When Oklahoma expanded its preschool program in 1998, the state additionally skilled widespread closures of present facilities. Oklahoma then determined to open funding to group suppliers. Each Fuller and Buthee praised New York Metropolis for together with group facilities in its pre-Okay growth from the beginning. Nonetheless, there have been issues there too. As public subsidies rose for 4-year-olds, toddler and toddler slots shrunk.
Fuller stays a proponent of early childhood schooling, and agrees that center class households want aid from little one care bills, however he warns there may be dangerous penalties when well-intentioned concepts are poorly applied.
Schooling methods are difficult and if you tinker with one small half, there is usually a ripple impact. Fuller doesn’t have a fast repair. Policymakers need to stability the generally conflicting objectives of bettering schooling for low-income kids and providing aid from the excessive price of childcare. There’s no one-size-fits-all reply.
Contact employees author Jill Barshay at 212-678-3595, jillbarshay.35 on Sign, or barshay@hechingerreport.org.
This story about free preschool was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, impartial information group centered on inequality and innovation in schooling. Join Proof Factors and different Hechinger newsletters.
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