We’re operating it again, people. The Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers are as soon as once more within the Stanley Cup Remaining, proving they’re the category of the Japanese and Western Conferences, with everybody nonetheless taking part in catchup.
On the floor these groups look very related in development to their 2024 counterparts, however there are some key adjustments for each the Oilers and Panthers that would tilt this collection. Florida is attempting to go back-to-back, and be a part of the 2021 and 2022 Tampa Bay Lightning to say the state’s hockey dominance in recent times. In the meantime there’s crushing stress on the Oilers to not solely get Connor McDavid a Cup, however turn out to be the primary Canadian workforce to win the championship because the Montreal Canadiens in 1993.
Offense
This has at all times been the Oilers’ power, and that hasn’t modified. No one matches the one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the subject of star energy and particular person potential amongst forwards — however this yr Edmonton’s traces run deeper. Corey Perry has actually discovered a spot within the shuffle this postseason and has seven targets in the course of the playoffs. Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor Brown are additionally out-performing their play within the postseason final yr.
What this implies is a extra numerous offensive lineup from the Oilers, however there’s a drawback right here: The damage to Zach Hyman. Hyman has been Edmonton’s most essential star this postseason as he’s proven the type of toughness missing within the majority of the Oilters forwards, and somebody who can match as much as Florida’s physicality. It’s anticipated Hyman will miss the remainder of the playoffs following surgical procedure — and that may be a main hit on Edmonton.
In the meantime, offense for the Panthers stems from their brutality. The whole Florida recreation hinges on inflicting chaos on the forecheck, opening up errors and breakaway probabilities in consequence. What makes this workforce so troublesome to protection towards is their shot effectivity. A staggering 13 skaters have a shot proportion of 15% of better these playoffs, that means they don’t simply get alternatives — however take advantage of them.
As well as, the Panthers made arguably probably the most impactful commerce deadline deal by buying Brad Marchand. Tailor made for Florida’s model of hockey, Marchand is a grinder who opens up alternatives on offense and has turn out to be a key third line distributor to that overwhelms line depth. Maybe his finest attribute is how irritating he might be, and that would trigger large points for Edmonton.
Edge: Edmonton Oilers. That’s not a knock on the Panthers, however even with Hyman out the Oilers have the person expertise to generate probabilities, and the depth this yr to match up higher on the third and fourth line.
Protection
In the case of protection Edmonton is … tremendous. Clearly they’ve sufficient chops to make it to the Stanley Cup Remaining, and you may’t really be unhealthy defensively and make it this far. That mentioned it’s removed from one thing you’d tout as a distinction maker this collection.
The Oilers’ complete scheme runs off simply stopping sufficient targets. That’s it. Edmonton averaged 2.78 targets allowed over the playoffs, and scored 4.06 per recreation. Sooner or later it’s simply all the way down to basic math, and this groups is aware of it. To Edmonton one of the best protection is an efficient offense, and that’s roughly how they obtained thus far.
Florida is one other beast fully. That’s what makes this matchup so fascinating. The stone partitions of the playoffs, the Panthers allowed a preposterously low 2.11 targets per recreation within the postseason, and that got here with out Sergei Bobrovsky taking part in his finest between the pipes. The way in which the Panthers run their forecheck means it’s usually like taking part in towards 5 defenders on the ice. Their technique is to press, shrink the assault, and switch the sport into half-ice hockey the place ideally their goaltender by no means sees the puck except completely obligatory.
It may appear easy, however actually no person has been capable of really break by means of and assert their will on Florida. Their model of play forces everybody to attempt to match them, and as we’ve seen in each sport ever, the workforce that will get to dictate the play is the one which finally ends up profitable out.
Edge: Florida Panthers. Not simply an edge, however an enormous one. The Oilers can’t come near matching the Panthers defensively. It’s all about whether or not or not they’ll rating sufficient to place stress on the Panthers.
Goaltending
Neither workforce made changes right here, and whereas that makes good sense for Florida — it’s mystifying that we’re again within the cup with Stuart Skinner being Edmonton’s best choice.
Whereas it’s true Skinner will get an unfair wrap due to the usually porous protection in entrance of him, he’s additionally has critically lapses in play the place he can Jekyll and Hyde his manner by means of a playoff collection. Early within the playoffs he was benched for poor play, solely to regain the job on account of damage. Skinner has been phenomenal since returning to the ice, however he can nonetheless be inconsistent, and that’s an issue in a grueling collection.
Sergei Bobrovsky continues to be a beast on the subject of Florida. Bob has positively taken a step again this yr largely on account of age (he’s 36 now), however stays one of the crucial unflappable goaltenders within the NHL. Whether or not the rating is 0-0 or the Panthers are down 3-0, Bob performs precisely the identical manner — which is an enormous credit score to him.
Being a superb goaltender means stopping the photographs you must, and having a protection that makes it troublesome for folks to get off high quality photographs. It’s a holistic strategy, and there’s just one workforce that does this completely.
Edge: Florida Panthers. Whereas Skinner has been taking part in extraordinarily effectively lately, that is nonetheless Bob’s world and we’re residing in it. He’s solely allowed 2.11 targets per recreation this postseason to Skinner’s 2.53, and that comes regardless of Florida taking part in higher offensive groups.
Technique
That is the place the chasm between these groups actually opens up. Florida is probably the most infuriating workforce within the playoffs, continually benefitting from unfastened playoff officiating that lets them get away with greater than groups would within the common season.
Enjoying soiled is a characteristic, not a bug on the subject of the Panthers. They know precisely what they’re doing, and coach Paul Maurice has leveraged his data of looser “allow them to play” officiating to realize one of the crucial profound edges in hockey.
For those who’re an opponent there’s merely no good method to counter it. For those who attempt to match the Panthers’ depth (and the Hurricanes did) you’ll fail, as a result of their roster was constructed for this and also you’re taking part in a unfastened facsimile of it. For those who attempt to simply play your personal recreation and ignore what they do then you definitely’re going to get changed into a tremendous paste by their buzzsaw forecheck and brutal protection.
The Oilers positively made roster enhancements because the final time these groups met, however they’re nonetheless not bodily sufficient to flip this collection.
Edge: Florida Panthers. No one has developed a greater technique for dealing with the sport than Florida. Except one thing occurs and so they begin getting known as for triple as many penalties then they are going to win out in technique as effectively.
Remaining Prediction
Nothing could be better than seeing a Canadian workforce lastly hoist the Stanley Cup for the primary time in many years. That mentioned, it’s troublesome to see a path by means of this with out Zach Hyman. The Oilers desperately wanted him to set the tone on their forecheck, and with out his play this feels loads like how the collection performed out final yr.
Florida is simply constructed totally different. This workforce is so deep, so aggressive, and so infuriating that it’s going to take a mammoth effort from Edmonton’s forwards to get fast targets and put stress on the Panthers. That’s an out of doors shot at finest, and I believe Florida is operating this one again.
Florida Panthers win the Stanley Cup Remaining 4-2
