Doha, Qatar – The sight of plumes of smoke within the aftermath of Israeli bombings have change into commonplace throughout the Center East in latest months – however within the skyline of Qatar’s glitzy capital, it was wholly unprecedented.
Israel’s assault on Doha on Tuesday – the sixth nation it has attacked this 12 months – appeared to focus on the Palestinian group Hamas’s negotiating group, who have been speculated on the time to be getting ready to closing a ceasefire deal for Gaza.
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Qatar has performed host to truce negotiations all through the almost two-year battle, a number one mediator within the course of – by no means a combatant. Additionally it is a US ally, and the house of the US’s largest navy base within the Center East.
Israel ignored purple strains to stage its assault within the densely populated space of Qatar’s capital, situated close to overseas embassies and faculties, which killed 5 lower-ranked members of Hamas, in addition to a Qatari Inner Safety Pressure officer.
The assault has triggered a cascade of anger all through Qatar’s authorities, which has condemned it as “state terrorism” and a “reckless legal assault”.
“They see this as an act of cowardice and treachery,” Rashid al-Mohanadi, a nonresident fellow on the Center East Council on International Affairs, instructed Al Jazeera.
“Israel’s try and assassinate the [Hamas] negotiation group within the nation of the mediator reveals that the Israelis don’t have any seriousness relating to reaching a [ceasefire] settlement.”
The assault has not solely referred to as into query how Qatar may reply, but additionally the way forward for its well-established mediator function, in addition to its defence alliances.
“This assault will likely be one of many vital historic shocks that may lead Qatar and different GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states to proceed their pursuit of diversified partnerships and [to] additional pursue strategic autonomy,” Sanam Vakil, the director of the Center East and North Africa Programme at Chatham Home, instructed Al Jazeera.
‘Straw that breaks the camel’s again’?
Qatar will doubtless leverage its function as a mediator in response to Israel’s assault, as its choices are restricted, in line with Cinzia Bianco, a visiting fellow on the European Council on Overseas Relations.
“Its essential leverage is to tug again from the function it has been taking part in for years … and use that as leverage to say, look, when you [do] not respect the neutrality of mediation, then you may now not depend on us to mediate for this battle,” Bianco instructed Al Jazeera.
Nevertheless, Bianco added, this may doubtless solely be helpful in pushing the US to behave, quite than Israel, which seems to have little curiosity in agreeing to a ceasefire deal.
Qatar might additionally use financial strain in opposition to Israel, mentioned al-Mohanadi.
“All choices are on the desk and financial strain could be imposed on the allies of Israel, specifically Europe and the US,” if they don’t take severe steps to cease Israel, al-Mohanadi mentioned. Qatar has billions of {dollars} price of investments in Europe and the US.
Vakil means that Arab states might use their diplomatic affect to induce Western allies to implement efficient constraints on Israel’s actions.
“Israel has struck seven nations within the Center East, and hitting Qatar – I believe, [it] could possibly be the straw that breaks the camel’s again for Israel,” she mentioned.
Vakil added that the Trump administration may apply extra direct strain on Israel, which is finally what Arab states, together with Qatar, hope to see to stop additional safety threats.
Moreover, Qatar has the choice of going to the United Nations to diplomatically isolate Israel. An emergency UN Safety Council assembly will happen on Thursday in response to Israel’s assault, following requests from Algeria, Pakistan, and different nations, in line with diplomatic sources.
On Wednesday, Doha additionally introduced the creation of a authorized group headed by Qatari diplomat Mohammed bin Abdulaziz al-Khulaifi, “to take all authorized measures in opposition to the treacherous Israeli assault, contemplating it an assault on the state’s sovereignty and a flagrant violation of worldwide legislation, conventions, and norms”.
Regardless of its restricted choices for a response, in al-Mohanadi’s view, Qatar is unlikely to desert its mediator function and can proceed to push for a ceasefire via the usage of multilateral organisations just like the UN Safety Council.
“Qatar won’t ever stop to be the mediator, as a result of mediation is actually in [Qatar’s] structure,” al-Mohanadi mentioned, including that the assault will solely be a “dent” within the function it has assumed in lots of conflicts for the previous decade.
Qatar has served as a mediator in numerous worldwide conflicts, facilitating peace discussions within the Democratic Republic of the Congo, spearheading initiatives to reunite Ukrainian youngsters displaced by the Russian conflict, and performing as a vital middleman in Afghan peace and humanitarian negotiations by internet hosting talks with the Taliban.
Eleonora Ardemagni, a senior affiliate analysis fellow on the Italian Institute for Worldwide Political Research (ISPI), agrees that whereas there’s an “extraordinarily slim” window for Gaza ceasefire negotiations in the intervening time, Qatar will proceed to play its mediator function. US-Qatar ties, nonetheless, have been blighted by the assault.
“Qatar is conscious that it may well’t change into the place the place different powers within the area settle accounts – that is about … nationwide safety,” Ardemagni instructed Al Jazeera.
“US deterrence is now not in a position to assure safety for Qatar, in addition to for the opposite GCC states.”
The strike, due to this fact, leaves Qatar in a troublesome place relating to internet hosting Hamas’s political management, mentioned the analysts.
“I don’t suppose that we’re going to see an instantaneous eviction of Hamas’s management – that would seem to indicate weak point or [play] into Israel’s fingers,” mentioned Vakil.
Qatar will quite search for assurances from the US, provided that “Qatar supported Hamas with the blessing of the USA a few years in the past and with the blessing of Israel,” mentioned Vakil.
Qatari officers have repeatedly acknowledged that the choice to host the Hamas management got here after a request from the US.
In a 2023 opinion piece for The Wall Avenue Journal, the Qatari ambassador to the US, Sheikh Meshal bin Hamad Al Thani, mentioned that Washington needed the workplace “to ascertain oblique strains of communication with Hamas”.
Whereas the analysts concurred that Hamas management wouldn’t face fast expulsion from Doha, Bianco indicated there’s a “robust probability” Qatar will rethink internet hosting the group.
Following worldwide backlash after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assault on Israel, Doha had already been evaluating this threat, however selected to keep up the connection to assist resolve the Gaza battle, she defined.
“But when the worth to be paid is that … they themselves change into targets, I believe, [it will] in all probability now not [be] price it,” mentioned Bianco, noting that any relocation would doubtless be a coordinated, consensual switch of the group to a different location.
Safety diversification and tender energy blows
Tuesday’s assault will doubtless speed up Qatar’s – and the broader Gulf nations’ – pursuit of diversified safety preparations, in line with al-Mohanadi.
That might imply increase their very own collective defence capabilities or searching for safety partnerships with actors like China, he mentioned.
“What occurred yesterday was not [just a] breach on Qatar, it was a breach on all the GCC, which was all the time off limits,” mentioned the analyst.
The extent of this diversification will hinge on the US response to the assault, he added.
Nevertheless, as a serious non-NATO ally of the US, Qatar’s defence posture adjustments will doubtless emerge step by step quite than instantly, Vakil identified.
“There are usually not too many choices for Qatar for it to pivot and transfer elsewhere … Over the long run, Qatar will look to forge or diversify bilateral and multilateral relationships,” she defined.
The analysts predict Gulf nations will unite over shared issues about regional destabilisation.
“With the Iranian assault in opposition to Al Udeid first and now with the Israeli strike on Doha, one thing has modified within the notion that Gulf leaders have in regards to the future,” mentioned Ardemagni, referring to Iran’s assault in June on the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, the biggest US navy base within the Center East.
“There’s a rising sense of Gulf id and unity vis-a-vis exterior assaults. I see an increase of patriotism and the sense of [a] nationwide unity … amongst Qatari residents and residents.”
Whereas the analysts agree that Qatar’s worldwide investments – from London actual property holdings to possession of European soccer golf equipment – will stay unaffected, Israel’s actions have dealt a blow to Qatar’s home tender energy ambitions.
“This assault is also an oblique aggression in opposition to [Qatar’s] aspiration to change into a vacationer hub and to carry extra worldwide occasions,” mentioned al-Mohanadi.
