Valero Texas Open odds, picks: Ludvig Åberg returns as favourite

This yr’s Texas Two-Step concludes with the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, the place the winner — if not in any other case exempt — will obtain the final invite into the 2025 Masters Match subsequent week at Augusta Nationwide.

Twenty-seven gamers on this week’s Valero Texas Open 149-man discipline will play at this yr’s Masters. That features the likes of Ludvig Åberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, and 2021 Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama. All of those gamers are listed among the many favorites this week as properly.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and World No. 2 Rory McIlroy are usually not taking part in at TPC San Antonio, opting to get their last begin earlier than the Masters at final week’s Texas Kids’s Houston Open. However that ought to not draw back from the truth that this yr’s version of the Valero Texas Open boasts a powerful discipline. Six of the top-16 gamers on this planet will tee it up, together with Åberg, who’s at the moment fifth.

Final yr’s winner, Akshay Bhatia, at the moment the Twenty third-ranked participant within the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), will look to defend his title this week. Bhatia’s win over Denny McCarthy awarded him a spot at The Masters the next week, when he turned the primary participant to qualify for the season’s first main after being a Drive, Chip, and Putt participant in his youth. Different previous champions on this yr’s discipline embrace Conners, who has received this occasion twice in 2019 and 2023, Spieth, Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker, Martin Laird, and 2023 Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson.

Apparently, 4 of the final seven champions on the Valero Texas Open claimed their first PGA Tour victory with their win at TPC San Antonio. That was most lately the case with J.J. Spaun, who received in 2022. The opposite three gamers that this is applicable to are Conners in 2019, Andrew Landry in 2018, and Kevin Chappell in 2017. Maybe this week will produce one other first-time champion, which won’t solely give them a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour but in addition guide them a visit to Augusta Nationwide.

Gamers who preserve the ball in play, as do those that flush their irons with precision and accuracy, are inclined to do properly right here. In contrast to final week at Memorial Park, TPC San Antonio will not be a bomber’s paradise, however having distance doesn’t damage. What does damage is being out of place and attacking these inexperienced complexes from a poor angle.

Valero Texas Open Odds:

Listed below are the newest odds for gamers to win the Valero Texas Open, courtesy of FanDuel:

Ludvig Åberg +1200

Tommy Fleetwood +1400

Corey Conners +1600

Patrick Cantlay +1800

Jordan Spieth +2200

Hideki Matsuyama +2200

Keegan Bradley +2500

Denny McCarthy +3000

Si Woo Kim +3500

Daniel Berger +3500

Tony Finau +4000

Keith Mitchell +4500

Maverick McNealy +4500

Tom Kim +4500

Bud Cauley +5000

Sam Burns +5000

J.T. Poston +5000

Samuel Stevens +5500

Gary Woodland +5500

Ben Griffin +5500

Matt Fitzpatrick +6000

Harry Corridor +6000

Rico Hoey +6500

Kurt Kitayama +6500

Lee Hodges +7000

Jake Knapp +7000

Andrew Novak +7000

Charley Hoffman +7500

Alex Smalley +7500

Rickie Fowler +7500

Patrick Rodgers +8000

Ryan Fox +8000

Ryan Gerard +8000

Seamus Energy +9000

Brian Harman +9000

Justin Rose +9000

Beau Hossler +9000

Tom Hoge +9000

Chris Kirk +9000

Thorbjørn Olesen +9000

Victor Perez +10000

Matt Kuchar +10000

Niklas Nørgaard +10000

Matt Wallace +10000

Enjoying By’s Picks:

Jack Milko — Employees Author, Golf

TPC San Antonio requires good positioning off the tee and cast-iron play into these undulating inexperienced complexes. Bud Cauley suits that billing, particularly contemplating that he’s fifth on the PGA Tour in general strokes gained and thirteenth in strokes gained from tee-to-green.

He isn’t the longest of hitters by any means, however this can be a golf course that favors the golfer who performs from the right angles as a substitute of those that bomb and gauge. The previous Alabama standout picks and plots away round a golf course, which helps clarify why he’s second on tour, trailing solely Collin Morikawa, in proximity to the opening. His brief sport is strong too.

Cauley arrives on the Valero Texas Open in good type as properly. In his final two begins, at The Gamers Championship and the Valspar Championship, Cauley tied for sixth at TPC Sawgrass after which posted a T-4 at Innisbrook.

He started the ultimate spherical at The Gamers one stroke behind J.J. Spaun, however a few early bogies saved him at bay. He tallied a 2-over 74 then, however nonetheless had loads of people cheering him on from the course, at residence, and on tv. Maybe no one rooted more durable for Cauley than Justin Thomas, his faculty teammate.

Thomas stated that he would have carried out “actually bizarre issues” for Cauley to win The Gamers, a testomony to their friendship but in addition to Cauley’s prolonged harm historical past. Simply hours after lacking the reduce on the 2018 Memorial Match, Cauley was in a horrible automobile accident. He instantly underwent surgical procedure to restore six damaged ribs, a fractured leg, and a collapsed lung. He then needed to undergo by means of issues from that incident for years, and even had a “gap in his chest” within the spring of 2021. He didn’t return to the PGA Tour till early 2024.

Earlier than that accident, many thought-about Cauley the subsequent huge star and predicted he would sometime turn into a serious champion. That also may occur, however this week, Cauley turns into a star in his personal proper and will get the job carried out at TPC San Antonio. He has skilled the ultimate spherical stress earlier than, particularly over the previous couple of weeks, and will get over the hump to seize the primary win of his PGA Tour profession. And, together with his win, Cauley will head to Augusta Nationwide for his first Masters look.

FanDuel Odds: Cauley to win at +5000

Photograph by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Photographs

RJ Ochoa — Senior Producer, Running a blog the Boys

Relating to the week earlier than the Masters it’s troublesome to take something tremendous significantly, all due respect to the Valero Texas Open that I maintain close to and expensive to my coronary heart as somebody who lived in San Antonio for a decade.

This week appears like one during which we’re going to get a reputation that surprises us but in addition one which we’re considerably acquainted with. Akshay Bhatia had that vibe a yr in the past.

For this yr’s Valero Texas Open, I’m going to go along with somebody who checks these containers in Keegan Bradley. To date this season, Bradley has been knocking on the door. We proceed to have these conversations about how bizarre it might be if he certified for the Ryder Cup within the yr he’s captaining it. A win in San Antonio wouldn’t essentially benefit that, however it might stir the pot earlier than one of many greatest weeks of the yr.

Give me the captain on the best way to Augusta.

FanDuel Odds: Bradley to win at +2500

Photograph by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Photographs

Mark Schofield — Employees Author, NFL and System 1

First off, a hearty congratulations to our fearless chief Jack, who nailed final week’s predictions together with his selection of Min Woo Lee to win. He joins RJ, who accurately chosen Ludvig Åberg on the Genesis Invitational.

Will I be a part of them within the winner’s circle this week?

Most likely not, however you may’t make birdie if you happen to don’t tee it up, so right here we go.

Going chalk final week with Rory McIlroy didn’t pan out, so we’re going again to our authentic methodology of discovering a longshot within the discipline. In doing my analysis for this week, I stumbled throughout this word: In 4 of the final six Valero Texas Opens, the winner has ranked first for Strokes Gained: Method throughout the event.

That leads me to Tom Kim, who at the moment ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in that statistic this season, with a SG: Method of 0.878. It has been a gradual begin to the season for Kim, who has only one High Ten end on the yr, coming on the AT&T Pebble Seashore Professional-Am again firstly of February. Since then he has completed no increased than T36, which got here the final outing on the Valspar Championship.

Nonetheless, that word has me pondering he may make a run this week.

FanDuel Odds: Kim to win at +4500

Photograph by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Photographs