For months, the U.S. president tried to play peacemaker, however Viktor Orban’s good friend in Moscow ignored him – escalating missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and increasing hybrid warfare throughout Europe. Putin’s resolve to escalate solely makes Trump look weak, and Trump doesn’t tolerate wanting weak. Now he seems to be bringing a keep on with the negotiations. If Ukraine is certainly receiving Tomahawk missiles, issues will solely worsen for Putin. And for his good friend in Budapest.
Orban seems to be sleepwalking right into a disaster of his personal making. His love affair with Putin has remoted him in Europe. His reliance on Russian oil threatens to lead to an financial disaster if and when the oil stops flowing via Ukraine. His revanchist claims on Ukraine’s Zakarpattia Province has angered Kyiv, with out successful Ukraine’s Hungarians to his aspect. And if he continues to impress the drone superpower in Kyiv by violating Ukrainian airspace with Hungarian drones, he could in the future discover himself on the receiving finish of a heavy stick.
How various things had been in 1989, when greater than 200,000 Hungarians gathered in Budapest’s Heroes’ Sq. for the reburial of Imre Nagy, the executed chief of the 1956 Revolution. The ceremony culminated in a daring seven-minute speech by a younger Viktor Orban, who known as without cost elections and the withdrawal of Soviet troops nonetheless stationed in Hungary. It was that very same Orban who throughout Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, condemned it as an “imperialistic motion of pure energy politics.” However by 2022, he was captured by Russian cash.
Whether or not Orban harbors imperial ambitions or just covets the totalitarian management exerted by a corrupt Kremlin, Hungary has develop into a bastion of Chinese language and Russian affect within the coronary heart of Europe and has actively supported Putin’s conflict and provoked Kyiv.
In Could 2025, Ukraine’s Safety Service uncovered a suspected Hungarian army intelligence community, marking the primary time an EU state had been caught spying in opposition to Kyiv.
Then in September 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that reconnaissance drones doubtless belonging to Hungary had violated Ukraine’s airspace, the primary such reported breach. Kyiv accused the plane of scouting Ukraine’s industrial capability alongside the border.
Orban even shrugged off the violation whereas talking on a chat present, saying that Hungarian drones “both crossed or not” into Ukraine’s skies, earlier than including that “Ukraine will not be a sovereign nation” and Hungary was not its enemy, so there was no drawback. This reckless perspective is mirrored inside his personal authorities. In a leaked 2023 recording, Protection Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky spoke of “breaking with the peace mentality” and coming into “section zero of the trail to conflict.” This was the type of language you’d anticipate from Moscow, not from the capital of a NATO ally.
That conceitedness carries dangers. In August 2025, Ukraine struck the Druzhba oil pipeline, reducing flows of Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia – the one EU states nonetheless hooked on Moscow’s vitality. Kyiv had little purpose to spare nations that blocked support in Brussels, and the strike confirmed that Hungary’s dependence on Russian pipelines is a vulnerability Ukraine can simply exploit. That Hungary signed a take care of France’s Engie to purchase liquefied pure gasoline modifications nothing, since Orban says he has no plans to cease importing gasoline and oil from Russia.
What’s the purpose of Orban’s provocations? Does he actually consider that Russia is successful a conflict that’s price it over 1 million casualties? Does he really consider that Hungary can reestablish the borders it had in the course of the Habsburg Empire and assist Russia dismantle Ukraine? Does he not see that he’s compelling the EU and NATO to undertake measures that can in the end isolate Hungary and negate its baneful affect?
A rational politician in a small, landlocked nation that’s benefited inordinately from its neighbors’ largesse will surely sing a special tune. As an alternative, Orban is, like Putin, driving his nation towards catastrophe.
It’s attainable that the erstwhile Hungarian patriot has develop into a Hungarian imperialist who fashions himself on Moscow’s dictator. Extra doubtless, Orban and his legitimacy are trapped within the revisionist ideology that helped him consolidate energy. In response to him and his propaganda equipment, Hungary was victimized in each world wars, whereas the truth is that it occurred to ally with the improper aspect, thereby bringing its troubles upon itself.
That narrative, and Orban’s dictatorial pretensions, seem to have outlived their goal. His opponent, Peter Magyar, leads Orban by round 10 share factors and is prone to win the parliamentary elections in April 2026. Buyers are already betting {that a} change of presidency would unlock as a lot as €18 billion in frozen EU support, roughly a tenth of Hungary’s GDP, fueling a rally within the Hungarian forint.
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Orban can be smart to alter course and return to being the person who impressed 1000’s in 1989. He ought to cease pushing the Ukrainians, if solely as a result of that makes him look ridiculous. As Szabolcs Panyi, a Hungarian investigative journalist, has mentioned, “Hungary’s military is wholly unprepared for any sort of battle with anybody. Ukraine’s military is so superior that it’s utterly unrealistic that Orban would have interaction in direct combating.”
Orban additionally declared that Hungary was “not afraid” to shoot down Russian drones in the event that they violated his nation’s airspace. Maybe what he really fears is reducing off the funds from Moscow that hold him loyal. In any case, Budapest can be the weak hyperlink in any European “drone wall,” ought to it quickly be constructed. Nonetheless, the Russians appear to have been launching drones from ships, which might weaken any future drone wall.
As to the EU and NATO, Orban ought to understand that it is mindless to chunk, time and again, the hand that feeds you. Alas, Orban nonetheless has a protracted strategy to go. On October 1, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reportedly clashed with Orban at an EU summit in Copenhagen after the Hungarian chief disrupted talks on the bloc’s safety technique and support for Ukraine.
His hostility has solely sharpened since. On October 6, Orban accused Zelensky of utilizing “ethical blackmail” to push Ukraine’s EU bid, claiming Hungary had “no ethical obligation” to help it.
Until a miracle occurs, Orban will lose and be thrown out of workplace. Hungary may then develop into what it was in 1956 and 1989: a beacon of hope for democracy and human rights.
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